Orange juice prices have surged by more than a third in 2024 due to a supply shortage caused by low production in Brazil and the spread of the “greening” disease. Orange futures have risen by 35 percent this year, trading at $4.41 per pound as of June 7. This increase is attributed to a decline in orange production. Orange juice accounts for roughly seven billion liters of the 19.8 billion liters of juice beverages consumed globally each year.
Brazil is the largest producer of orange juice, but it has seen a substantial reduction in stock due to consecutive low crops and the spread of the greening disease, which has no cure. The disease kills the trees, making it difficult to restore normal stock levels and leading to a crisis-level situation. Orange juice prices have jumped from $2,000 to $7,000 per metric ton.
The United States is also facing production drops in Florida, which is the third-largest orange juice producer. The greening disease has severely impacted orange production in the state, dropping from 242 million boxes 20 years ago to roughly 17 million boxes today. This combination of production shortages in Brazil and Florida has led to higher prices for orange juice.
To adjust to market conditions, producers are raising consumer prices and exploring alternatives such as nectars with only 50 percent juice or drinks containing 10-20 percent juice. Some producers are also blending orange juice with mandarin juice or offering multifruit blends. Apple juice is being positioned as an alternative since it is not affected by the same issues.
In the long term, breeding oranges to create hybrids that are resistant to the greening disease could be a solution. However, in the short term, other fruits and vegetables can act as alternatives to orange juice. Efforts are being made in Florida to solve the greening issue and rebuild the citrus industry. Researchers are collaborating with various countries to find solutions and establish a viable model for moving forward.
Despite the challenges, industry experts believe that with continued research and support, the citrus industry can recover and replant crops that are resistant or tolerant to the greening disease. While the outlook for orange juice remains challenging, consumers may have to get used to higher prices until the supply-demand equation rebalances.
