What to Look Out for in Tuesday’s Primaries: 3 Key Factors to Keep an Eye On
The presidential nominations are secured, but the primaries continue to play a crucial role in determining the political landscape. Tuesday’s primaries in Ohio, Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Kansas, and Ohio will shed light on any lingering grumbling within the party bases over their presumptive nominees. Additionally, Ohio’s GOP Senate primary, which features car salesman Bernie Moreno, state Sen. Matt Dolan, and Secretary of State Frank LaRose, has become a fierce battle that will have implications for one of the most competitive Senate races of the year.
Ohio’s GOP Senate Primary: A Political Knife Fight
The Ohio GOP Senate primary has been marked by intense rivalry and accusations between the candidates. Bernie Moreno, who has secured former President Donald Trump’s endorsement, has positioned himself as an ardent supporter of Trump’s policies. Matt Dolan has taken a more traditional conservative approach, earning the support of Governor Mike DeWine and former Senator Rob Portman while expressing support for Trump’s policies without the same level of personal loyalty. Frank LaRose, though running in the Trump lane, has struggled to keep up with the high spending levels of Moreno and Dolan and suffered setbacks by not gaining Trump’s endorsement. The primary has been marred by personal attacks and scandals, including an email address associated with Moreno’s company being used to set up an online profile seeking “Men for 1-on-1 sex.” Democrats have also invested heavily in ads aimed at elevating Moreno’s ties to Trump in the eyes of conservative primary voters. The victor of this primary will face Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown in what promises to be one of the most competitive Senate races of the year.
Lingering Protest Votes against Trump or Biden?
While both Trump and Biden have won every primary state thus far, they have faced different forms of protest votes. Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley consistently received at least a quarter of the vote in primary states before suspending her campaign. Biden, on the other hand, has faced criticism over his handling of the war in Gaza, which led to over 100,000 people backing “uncommitted” in the Michigan Democratic primary as a protest vote. While protest votes are expected to diminish in both parties, there is still a chance for disgruntled voters to make their voices heard. Low turnout or support for minor candidates could indicate division within the party bases heading into the general election.
Battle for House Continues to Take Shape
While the presidential and Senate races take center stage, the battle for the House of Representatives will also be closely watched. Ohio’s 6th Congressional District is hosting a special election to complete the term of former GOP Rep. Bill Johnson, with a primary to determine the Republican nominee for a full term starting in January. The district is deep red, and candidates like state Rep. Reggie Stoltzfus and state Sen. Michael Rulli are running as staunch conservatives. However, Rulli is also receiving support from Defending Main Street, the super PAC arm of the more moderate Republican Main Street Partnership. Ohio’s 9th Congressional District, represented by Democrat Marcy Kaptur but also voting for Trump in 2020, is a top GOP target. State Rep. Derek Merrin, who has drawn support from national Republicans, and former state Rep. Craig Riedel are the remaining candidates. Illinois’ 7th Congressional District features a generational battle between 82-year-old Rep. Danny Davis, Chicago Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin, and activist Kina Collins. The ultimate nominee from this deep-blue seat is virtually guaranteed a win in November. Illinois’ 12th Congressional District is marked by Republican divides, with Rep. Mike Bost facing off against Darren Bailey, a former state lawmaker who has positioned himself to the right of the conservative incumbent.
As Tuesday’s primaries unfold, these three key factors will provide valuable insights into the state of the parties and the upcoming general election. The results will shape the political landscape and the strategies of candidates moving forward. Stay tuned for a night of high-stakes contests that will set the stage for the battles to come.
