During a recent three-week journey across South America, I found myself repeatedly confronted with a question that weighs heavily on the minds of many: “Who is truly in charge of Venezuela?” The answer, as I articulated, is disheartening yet straightforward: “The same crooks as before.”
The political landscape of Venezuela, particularly after the US operation that captured former dictator Nicolás Maduro, has been confusingly turbulent. President Donald Trump has taken to social media, declaring himself the “Acting President of Venezuela,” and has claimed to have engaged in extensive conversations with Delcy Rodriguez, Maduro’s former vice-president and now interim president. Rodriguez is described by Trump as a “terrific person,” implying that she might be receptive to his directives, despite the significant challenges she faces, including a debilitating US naval blockade that threatens the country’s oil exports.
In a significant turn of events, Venezuela has released dozens of political prisoners since Maduro’s capture on January 3, yet the human rights organization Foro Penal reports that over 800 political prisoners remain incarcerated. This raises questions about the authenticity of any regime change, as Rodriguez and other high-ranking officials, including the influential Diosdado Cabello and Minister of Defense Padrino Lopez, maintain control over the military, police, and intelligence services—essentially the pillars of the Maduro regime. The “colectivos,” paramilitary groups loyal to the government, continue to suppress dissent by surveilling citizens and detaining those who criticize the regime online.
Rodriguez’s rhetoric further complicates the narrative; she continues to refer to Maduro as the “legitimate” president and has condemned the US’s actions as a “kidnapping.” In a recent address to the National Assembly, Rodriguez denounced the so-called “criminal economic blockade” while asserting Venezuela’s right to foster relationships with nations like Russia, China, and Iran. For the average Venezuelan, the reality remains starkly unchanged—it’s “Madurismo sin Maduro,” a continuation of the same oppressive policies without the figurehead.
The Trump administration’s cautious approach is noteworthy. Officials have cited the chaotic aftermath of the US invasion of Iraq as a reason to refrain from empowering opposition leaders in the current Venezuelan context. However, this strategy risks consolidating a bloody dictatorship while deterring potential foreign investment. Trump’s promises to “make Venezuela rich” echo his previous grandiose claims, which have often fallen flat—such as the ill-fated plan to create a “Gaza Riviera” or his assertion that he could resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict within a day.
In a recent press conference, Trump focused heavily on oil, drugs, and migration but neglected to mention democracy, a glaring omission given the circumstances. He suggested that a transition to democracy could take “years,” without providing a concrete timeline or plan for restoring essential democratic freedoms, such as press freedom and voting rights for the over 8 million Venezuelans living abroad.
Peru’s interim President José Jeri emphasized the need for a clear roadmap for Venezuela, whether through appointing Edmundo González Urritia, a Machado-backed candidate believed to have won the 2024 election, or by organizing new elections. Former US Ambassador to Venezuela, Charles Shapiro, cautioned that maintaining the current regime would breed instability. According to Shapiro, disillusionment among the Venezuelan people is inevitable if substantive changes do not occur soon: “At some point, in 30 or 90 days, or in six months, the [Venezuelan] people are going to be disappointed.”
Shapiro proposed creating a group of respected figures—neither regime insiders nor opposition leaders—to facilitate negotiations toward restoring freedoms and establishing a framework for free elections. This coalition could include academics or religious leaders, potentially convened in neutral locations, such as the papal nuncio’s office in Caracas.
Without a structured approach to restoring the rule of law, it is likely that Trump will shift his focus to other foreign policy priorities, leaving Rodriguez’s regime entrenched as a “tolerable” dictatorship. In this scenario, Venezuela will continue to struggle, remaining neither rich nor free. The imperative to initiate this transformative process is urgent—time is of the essence for the Venezuelan people.
Reviewed by: News Desk
Edited with AI assistance + Human research
