New Hampshire Primary Poll: Trump Leads with 50% Support, Haley at 35%
In the final Emerson College Polling/WHDH poll of the New Hampshire primary, it has been revealed that 50% of voters plan to support Donald Trump on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Nikki Haley has garnered 35% support. Ron DeSantis, who suspended his campaign on Sunday afternoon, still managed to secure 8% support. Only 7% of voters remain undecided. However, when factoring in the leanings of undecided voters, Trump’s support rises to 53%, and Haley’s to 37%.
Since the previous Emerson/WHDH New Hampshire poll earlier this month, Trump’s support has increased from 44% to 50%, while Haley’s has risen from 28% to 35%.
Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, commented on the results, stating, “Ahead of Tuesday’s primary, Trump has regained majority support in New Hampshire. The former president holds nearly two-thirds of support among registered Republican voters in the primary, leading Haley 65% to 23%. Haley, on the other hand, holds the plurality of independent voters’ support, leading Trump 47% to 33%.”
Kimball further analyzed the data, noting that Haley’s base primarily consists of older voters, specifically those over 70, and individuals with postgraduate degrees. Among these groups, Haley holds the plurality of support with 46% of voters over 70 and 45% of postgraduates. However, Trump maintains a more significant lead over Haley within his base demographics, leading 62% to 17% among voters under 40 and 61% to 18% among voters with a high school degree or less.
With only two days remaining until the primary, a strong majority of voters have already made up their minds. About 83% of voters say they will definitely vote for their chosen candidate, while 17% admit there is a chance they could change their mind and vote for someone else.
Interestingly, Trump voters are the least likely to consider changing their minds, with 90% of them firmly committed to voting for Trump. Only 10% say they could change their mind. Among Haley supporters, 80% say they will definitely support her, while 20% admit they could change their mind.
In addition, Republican Primary voters were asked about the impact of Nikki Haley and Donald Trump not participating in the final two New Hampshire debates and any primary debates, respectively. Regarding Haley, 74% of Republican Primary voters stated that her absence has no impact on their vote. On the other hand, 19% said it makes them less likely to support Haley, and 7% said it makes them more likely to support her. Concerning Trump’s lack of participation in debates, 60% said it has no difference on their vote, 25% said they are less likely to vote for Trump because of this, and 15% are more likely to support him.
In the Democratic Primary, the majority of voters (61%) plan to write-in President Joe Biden. Dean Phillips has garnered 16% support, while Marianne Williamson has 5%. Sixteen percent of voters remain undecided.
Kimball highlighted the fact that Biden’s strength generally increases with voters’ age. For instance, 84% of Democratic Primary voters over 60 plan to write-in Biden, compared to 70% of voters in their 50s, 52% of voters in their 40s, and 40% of voters under 40. Dean Phillips’ support mainly comes from voters under 50, with 26% of voters in their 40s and 22% of voters under 40 supporting him.
The top issues for Republican Primary voters include the economy (36%), immigration (20%), housing affordability (12%), and threats to democracy (12%). On the other hand, Democratic Primary voters prioritize housing affordability (24%), threats to democracy (19%), the economy (16%), and abortion access (14%).
Kimball further noted that Republican voters who consider the economy as the top issue facing their state overwhelmingly support Trump over Haley, with a margin of 57% to 31%. Similarly, on the issue of immigration, Trump leads Haley by a significant margin of 77% to 10%. However, when it comes to concerns about housing and threats to democracy, Haley holds the advantage with 53% to 37% and 67% to 20%, respectively. Kimball pointed out that while Haley has majority support among voters concerned about housing and democracy, they make up a smaller share of the electorate compared to those concerned about the economy and immigration.
The Emerson College Polling/WHDH New Hampshire survey was conducted from January 18-20, 2024. The sample size for New Hampshire likely presidential primary voters was 1,140, with a credibility interval of +/- 2.8 percentage points. The Republican primary had a sample size of 673, with a credibility interval of +/- 3.7%. The Democratic primary had a sample size of 467, with a credibility interval of +/- 4.5%.
The data sets were weighted based on gender, education, race, age, and region using 2024 registration modeling. Turnout modeling was based on U.S. Census parameters and New Hampshire voter registration and exit poll data. Data was collected through an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines, MMS-to-web, and a voter list of emails provided by Aristotle, an online panel of voters provided by Alchemer, and a panel provided by the U.S. Panel Project.
It is important to note that subsets based on demographics carry higher credibility intervals due to reduced sample sizes. Therefore, survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, with a confidence interval of 95%. A poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Overall, the final Emerson College Polling/WHDH poll provides valuable insights into the preferences and leanings of New Hampshire primary voters, shedding light on the dynamics of the upcoming election.
