The soaring cost of housing has become a major concern in swing states across the country, with monthly housing payments nearly doubling since the 2020 election. According to data from real estate brokerage firm Redfin, average monthly housing payments in swing states have risen by 92 percent in the last four years, reaching an all-time high of over $2,000. This increase can be attributed to the skyrocketing home prices and mortgage rates that have plagued the housing market.
Redfin’s analysis of housing market data and incomes for Democrat-leaning, Republican-leaning, and swing states from 2016 to 2024 reveals that home prices in battleground states have reached a record high of $316,063, a 40 percent increase since the last election. These swing states, as identified by Redfin, include Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina.
Elijah de la Campa, a Senior Economist at Redfin, emphasizes that housing affordability will be a critical issue in this year’s election between President Biden and former President Trump, particularly in swing states. He explains that voters in these states are concerned about soaring home prices and mortgage rates, along with a shortage of homes for sale, which have made homeownership feel unattainable for many Americans. This issue is particularly challenging for young people with low incomes and no savings.
While swing states historically had lower housing costs than blue states, they have not been immune to the affordability crunch experienced nationwide in recent years. The inability to afford a home has left many voters feeling pessimistic about the economy and their financial prospects.
To determine affordability, Redfin considers a home or listing affordable if a household spends no more than 30 percent of their income on monthly housing costs. According to Redfin’s calculations, a family in a swing state would need to earn at least $86,421 per year to keep their monthly housing costs within this threshold. This is nearly double the $45,140 income required in 2020, highlighting the significant increase in housing costs.
However, it’s not just swing states that have been impacted by the rising cost of living. Redfin’s data reveals that housing costs have also surged in both red and blue states since the 2020 election. Factors contributing to this include the pandemic-fueled “homebuying frenzy,” higher mortgage rates, and a shortage of available homes for sale. In red states, median housing payments have increased by 95 percent since 2020, reaching a record $2,066. In blue states, they have risen by 83 percent to $3,311.
Furthermore, Redfin’s analysis shows that median home prices have increased by 28 percent in conservative-leaning states and 27 percent in Democrat strongholds. This indicates that the soaring cost of housing is a nationwide issue affecting Americans across the political spectrum.
The current state of the housing market is reminiscent of the period leading up to the 2020 presidential election when home prices surged due to remote working trends, exceptionally low mortgage rates, and the beginning of the pandemic housing boom. However, as the country approaches this year’s election between President Biden and former President Trump, mortgage rates have risen significantly. The average 30-year mortgage rate now stands at 6.89 percent, more than double the record low of 2.65 percent seen at the beginning of 2021.
Earlier this month, Redfin reported that home prices across the United States reached an all-time high of $397,482, marking a 4.7 percent year-over-year increase and the largest increase in over four months. These figures highlight the ongoing challenges faced by potential homeowners and underscore the urgent need for policymakers to address housing affordability concerns nationwide.
