Title: The Pentagon’s New Strategy: Cheap and Lethal Drones to Counter China
Introduction:
Amid growing concerns about a potential conflict with China, the Pentagon has unveiled its Replicator initiative, which aims to deploy thousands of low-cost autonomous drones. These drones, known as all-domain, attritable autonomous (ADA2) systems, will be used to overwhelm the numerically superior People’s Liberation Army. The Defense Department is now turning to nontraditional weapons makers to develop a new drone program, known as the Enterprise Test Vehicle (ETV), which will focus on producing low-cost, quick-to-build, and modular drones. However, the mass production of these deadly drones raises concerns about civilian casualties and accountability.
The Shift to Cheap and Versatile Drones:
The Defense Department’s Replicator initiative marks a shift from their “legacy” drones, which are considered over-engineered and labor-intensive to produce. The new robot planes will be smaller and more versatile than previous models, with a focus on mass production through “on-call” manufacturing. Four contractors, including Anduril Industries and Leidos Dynetics, have been chosen for the ETV program, out of more than 100 applicants.
Concerns About Civilian Casualties:
Experts worry that the mass production of low-cost drones will lead to an increase in civilian casualties. The use of drones in recent years has already resulted in unintended civilian deaths. For example, a 2018 U.S. drone strike in Somalia killed at least three civilians, including a 4-year-old child. Human rights organizations and members of Congress have called for accountability and compensation for such incidents. The potential for even greater civilian harm raises questions about how risks will be assessed and mitigated.
Advances in Artificial Intelligence:
Advances in artificial intelligence have raised the possibility of autonomous drones selecting their own targets. In the Ukraine war, autonomous drones have been used to counter Russian forces, with Ukraine employing up to 10,000 low-cost drones per month. The Pentagon sees Ukraine’s drone force as a model for countering China’s larger military. However, concerns about the use of autonomous weapons have led to calls for a legally binding treaty banning such weapons.
The Lack of Accountability:
The U.S. military has a history of conducting airstrikes with a disregard for civilian casualties. Over the past century, the U.S. military has conducted airstrikes that have resulted in the deaths of thousands of civilians. The Pentagon’s reporting on civilian casualties has been inconsistent, with missed deadlines and a lack of transparency. The absence of accountability raises concerns about how the Pentagon will reckon with future civilian harm as the use of drones increases.
Conclusion:
The Pentagon’s plan to deploy cheap and lethal drones as part of its Replicator initiative is aimed at countering China’s military advantage in terms of numbers. However, the mass production of these drones raises concerns about civilian casualties and accountability. Advances in artificial intelligence further complicate the ethical implications of using autonomous drones. As the use of drones increases, it becomes crucial for the Pentagon to establish effective safeguards and mechanisms for assessing and mitigating risks to civilians. Without proper accountability, the potential for civilian harm will only grow as drone warfare evolves.
