Bill James, the pioneer of baseball analytics, recently expressed his concerns about the current state of the sport. In a discussion on social media, he criticized the excessive reliance on data-driven analysis and argued that the focus on details has overshadowed the larger questions in baseball.
James, known for his “Baseball Abstract” books in the 1980s, initially ventured into sabermetrics to address significant issues in baseball and other sports. He acknowledged the success that he and others achieved in this field of study. However, he now believes that the game has been “hijacked” by what he refers to as the “computer guys.”
According to James, the proliferation of small measurements such as exit velocity, pitch counts, pitch movement, and launch angle represents a failure of sabermetrics. He likens it to getting caught in machinery, emphasizing the need to focus on broader aspects of the game. James did not specify who exactly he meant by “computer guys,” but it is clear that he believes there has been an excessive emphasis on minutia.
This shift towards an analytical approach has coincided with a downturn in offensive performance in baseball. Despite rule changes implemented in 2023 to increase balls in play, the major league average heading into Tuesday’s play was .242, lower than the league-wide average in 1884. Pitchers have increasingly focused on harder velocities, better spin rates, and other data points, resulting in fewer hits and less action on the field.
James argues that it is essential to return to thinking about bigger questions in baseball and not get bogged down in the minutia of data analysis. He believes that the development of real understanding about the essential questions that form the game has essentially stopped. There is a lack of research and writing on these fundamental aspects. James calls for a reevaluation of priorities and a return to the study of basic, large-scale questions.
It is worth noting that James left Boston’s front office in 2019 but continues to be a respected figure in the world of baseball analytics. His insights and criticisms highlight the need for balance in the use of data and the importance of not losing sight of the bigger picture in sports analysis. As the sport evolves, it is crucial to strike a balance between advanced analytics and a deeper understanding of the game’s fundamental principles.
