The Decline of US-Born Workers: Revealing the Unseen Truth behind High Job Numbers
Economists are raising concerns about the impact of illegal immigrants on the US job market and economy, suggesting that the headline employment figures may not accurately reflect the true state of affairs. While recent job growth numbers have been impressive, with millions of new positions added despite inflation and rising interest rates, a closer look at the data reveals a decline in employment for native-born Americans over the past four years. Instead, all job gains have gone to foreign-born workers, including both legal and illegal immigrants.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports that between February 2020 and February 2024, the number of immigrants working in the US, both legal and illegal, grew by 3.4 million. In contrast, the number of US-born workers declined by 78,000 during the same period. Furthermore, during the Biden administration, there have been roughly twice as many illegal immigrants entering the country as legal immigrants. This has led to concerns about the distortion of the job market and the need for a focus on legal immigrants with high skill levels or special talents.
Economist Stephen Moore, who served as an economic adviser to former President Donald Trump, criticizes the Biden administration for turning the US immigration system “upside down.” He argues that the economy needs more legal immigrants with high skill levels instead of low-wage illegal immigrants. The rise in illegal employment not only obscures the true state of the US jobs market but also drives down wages for American workers.
However, some experts argue that illegal immigrants are not hurting US-born workers. The Economic Policy Institute states that immigrants are being absorbed into the labor market at a rapid pace without negatively impacting US-born workers. They argue that the labor market is maintaining record-low unemployment for US-born workers. This discrepancy in opinions highlights the complexity of the issue and the need for further analysis.
One surprising impact of the increase in illegal immigration is its effect on economic growth. Many economists have been perplexed by the strong employment growth in recent years, and they attribute part of this growth to the large influx of immigrants, both legal and illegal. The rise in immigration has boosted consumer spending and overall economic growth, with estimates suggesting that it added over $300 billion to the GDP. However, some argue that a larger economy does not necessarily mean a better economy for the existing population, as immigration can reduce per-person GDP by causing population growth to outpace economic growth.
Another aspect that has raised eyebrows is the series of downward revisions to the federal government’s monthly jobs report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has made sizable downward revisions to the data after the initial release, leading to questions about the accuracy of the data collection methodology. Some analysts argue that the household survey, which calculates the unemployment rate, provides a more accurate picture of the job market’s health compared to the establishment survey, which provides payroll statistics.
Overall, the issue of illegal immigration and its impact on the US job market and economy is a complex one. While some argue that immigrants are not harming US-born workers and are contributing to economic growth, others express concerns about the distortion of the job market, wage stagnation, and declining labor force participation among US-born workers. As economists continue to analyze the data and debate the implications, it becomes clear that a comprehensive understanding of this issue is crucial for effective policy-making and ensuring a strong and inclusive economy for all.
