Summer is just around the corner, and it looks like we’re in for some toasty conditions across the majority of the United States. The latest climate outlook from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reveals that temperatures will be well above average in much of the Lower 48, with varying amounts of precipitation across the country.
The forecast covers the meteorological summer, which begins on June 1 and extends until August 31. Forecasters have noted that an emerging La Niña will start to influence weather patterns across North America, although it remains unclear when exactly this climate pattern will emerge.
One of the notable features of this summer’s weather outlook is the establishment of ridges of high pressure across the western US and southeast Canada. These ridges are expected to result in significant heat waves, which could potentially challenge record temperatures in these regions. In fact, this summer has the potential to be one of the warmest in history, surpassing records set in 2021 and even as far back as 1936.
However, there is a silver lining for those living in the Upper Midwest. Unlike the El Niño-influenced winter, where the region experienced unusually warm temperatures, this summer may bring close-to-average temperatures to the area.
While warm temperatures typically come hand-in-hand with below-average rainfall, NOAA forecasters believe that won’t be the case east of the Mississippi River. The agency’s precipitation outlook for June, July, and August shows that most states in the eastern US have the highest chances of above-normal rainfall. This can be attributed to the growing emergence of a La Niña over the Pacific, which is expected to influence weather patterns during the second half of 2024.
Unfortunately, not all regions will benefit from above-average rainfall. Vast areas of the West, including the Desert Southwest, are likely to experience below-average rainfall. This is particularly concerning for the Desert Southwest, as it usually relies on the annual monsoon during the late summer. However, the latest forecast suggests that the monsoon may not be a significant factor during the upcoming season.
It’s worth noting that the current state of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is considered neutral by several climate organizations around the Pacific Ocean. While NOAA’s latest update still categorizes the region as in an El Niño Advisory, there are significant odds (85%) that El Niño will dissipate this spring. This neutral state of ENSO occurs when water temperature anomalies in the eastern and central Pacific are between 0.9 degrees F and -0.9 degrees F.
Looking back at previous neutral summers, it’s clear that they tend to bring above-average temperatures across most regions of the country. On the precipitation front, average or above-average rainfall is also expected for most areas during neutral events.
As we gear up for summer, it’s important to prepare for potentially record-breaking heat and varying amounts of rainfall depending on your location. Stay hydrated, seek shade when necessary, and keep an eye on local weather forecasts for any updates or advisories.
