Four predictable failures of Operation Epic Fury: (1) rally around flag not revolt, (2) more stubborn not negotiable, (3) more radical leadership not moderate, (4) unexpectedly large response only to willfully blind; extension from 4-day operation to Passover (mid-April); Israeli admission of no regime defections; colonial assumption vs. Iranian reality; "dynamite diplomacy" fantasy collapse; decapitation strategy elevating IRGC hardliners; intelligence self-deception architecture; predictable outcomes as intelligence requirements not failures.
#FourPredictableCatastrophes
#EasilyForeseeable
#IntelligenceRequirement
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