As Week 5 of the NFL season approaches, avid bettors and football enthusiasts alike are searching for insights to navigate the ever-evolving landscape of player performance and matchups. With an impressive track record of 8-1 on prop picks this season, the strategy of targeting the Commanders and Colts’ pass defenses appears to be a fruitful one. Here are three player prop bets that could present solid opportunities this week.
### Amari Cooper: Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-120, DraftKings)
The Cleveland Browns’ offense has had a rocky start this season, currently sitting at 31st in expected points added (EPA) per play. A key contributor to this struggle has been Amari Cooper, who leads the league with eight drops—an alarming statistic for a player of his caliber, especially considering he recorded only seven drops the entire previous season. However, there is room for optimism.
Cooper’s potential for a breakout game is highlighted by his recent performance. Last week, he caught an 82-yard touchdown that was unfortunately negated by a penalty. Had that play counted, we might be looking at a much higher receiving line than 49.5 yards for this week.
The matchup against the Washington Commanders could be just what Cooper needs. The Commanders rank 30th in pass defense DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) and have allowed four receivers to surpass the 50-yard mark this season. Additionally, Cooper still boasts a 46.8% air-yard share and a 25% target share, placing him seventh and 18th in the NFL, respectively. With a catch rate of just 43.2%, the second-lowest among receivers with at least 25 targets, Cooper is primed for positive regression.
### Deshaun Watson: Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+170, DraftKings)
Deshaun Watson is on the cusp of a resurgence, having put together two strong performances with the potential for consecutive games featuring two or more passing touchdowns. His showing last week, which earned him an impressive 88.5 passing grade from Pro Football Focus—the highest in his time with the Browns—signals that he is regaining his form.
The Commanders’ defense has struggled against quarterbacks, allowing 16 out of 21 to throw for two or more touchdowns this season, including quarterbacks like Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor. With the expected return of tight end David Njoku, Watson gains another target who can make an impact in the red zone, further enhancing his chances of exceeding this touchdown threshold.
### Brian Thomas Jr.: Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-120, BetMGM)
For those looking to place a bet on an up-and-coming player, Brian Thomas Jr. offers an intriguing opportunity. The rookie wide receiver for the Jaguars has seen his target share grow significantly, culminating in a season-high 33.3% first-read target share last week. This upward trajectory aligns perfectly with a matchup against the Indianapolis Colts, who have consistently struggled against the pass.
The Colts employ a Cover 3 scheme at a rate of 43.1%, among the highest in the league, and Thomas has thrived against this coverage. He ranks 10th in the league with 3.97 yards per route run against Cover 3, while his quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, excels against this scheme, ranking seventh in accurate throws against Cover 3.
The Colts’ secondary has also been decimated by injuries, particularly the potential absence of top cornerback Kenny Moore, further tilting the scales in favor of Thomas. Despite the initial betting line opening at 49.5 yards, it quickly shifted to 51.5, underscoring the growing confidence in his performance. Just be cautious of weather conditions, as a 90% chance of rain and winds of 10-15 mph could complicate the passing game.
### Conclusion
As the NFL season progresses, understanding player trends and defensive matchups becomes crucial for making informed betting decisions. With favorable matchups against the Commanders and Colts, Cooper, Watson, and Thomas Jr. present compelling options for prop bets this week. By leveraging recent performances and statistical trends, bettors can find value in these lines and potentially enhance their NFL wagering experience. Always stay updated on injury reports and weather conditions to navigate any last-minute changes that could impact these bets. Happy betting!
