New Poll Reveals RFK Jr’s Candidacy Could Potentially Have a Greater Impact on Trump than Biden in 2024
In the world of politics, surprises are never in short supply. A recent poll conducted by NBC News has revealed that independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s third-party bid could potentially have a greater impact on former President Donald Trump’s numbers than President Joe Biden’s in the upcoming 2024 election.
According to the poll, Trump narrowly edges out Biden in a one-on-one matchup, with 46% of respondents choosing Trump and 44% choosing Biden. However, when Kennedy is added to the mix, Biden takes the lead with 39% compared to Trump’s 37%. Kennedy himself garners 13% of the support, followed by Jill Stein at 3% and Cornell West at 2%.
This finding goes against some other polling results and comes at a time when the polls between Trump and Biden are tightening. In fact, Trump’s lead over Biden nationally has slipped to just 0.4 percentage points in the latest RealClearPolitics aggregate of polls. However, when Kennedy, Stein, and West are added to the mix, Trump’s lead jumps to 1.3 percentage points nationally.
One interesting aspect of this poll is the impact Kennedy’s candidacy has on voters who initially supported Trump or Biden. Of those who defected to Kennedy, 15% had initially chosen Trump in the one-on-one matchup, while only 7% had initially chosen Biden. This suggests that Kennedy may have a stronger appeal to former Trump supporters.
Furthermore, Kennedy seems to have drawn higher approval ratings from Republicans compared to Democrats. The poll shows that 40% of Republicans have a positive view of Kennedy, while only 15% have a negative view. On the other hand, Democrats have a less favorable opinion, with only 16% holding a positive view and a significant 53% holding a negative view.
The potential impact of Kennedy’s candidacy has not gone unnoticed by both the Trump and Biden campaigns. Both have expressed concerns about Kennedy functioning as a spoiler in the election. In fact, last Thursday, over a dozen members of the Kennedy clan formally endorsed Biden’s reelection bid, warning against voting for their relative given the stakes of the 2024 election.
Kennedy, who had initially entered the 2024 arena as a Democrat before switching to independent last year, has been scrambling to meet ballot qualifications in key states. His campaign events have drawn sizeable crowds, showcasing the interest and support he has garnered.
Another significant finding in the poll is that safeguarding democracy remains a potent issue for a significant portion of the electorate. When asked about the most important issue facing the country, 16% of respondents cited threats to democracy. This aligns with Biden’s campaign focus on protecting democracy while also addressing economic concerns.
However, it seems that disillusionment with the election is running high among voters. Only 64% of voters expressed a high level of interest in the upcoming presidential showdown, marking a 20-year low in interest. This decline in enthusiasm is concerning for both candidates as they strive to rally support and engage voters.
It’s important to note that this poll was conducted from April 12 to 16 among 1,000 registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. As the 2024 election approaches, it remains to be seen how Kennedy’s candidacy will continue to impact the race and whether he can attain the necessary 15% polling support to secure a spot on the debate stage. With his potential to sway former Trump supporters and his ability to draw sizable crowds, Kennedy is definitely a wildcard in an already unpredictable election landscape.
