As President Joe Biden has announced that he will not be seeking reelection in 2024, Republicans are now faced with the task of reevaluating their electoral strategy. They had previously relied on Biden’s unpopularity to help them gain control of the Senate. However, a recent poll conducted in Nebraska has revealed that one Senate seat, which was assumed to be reliably Republican, may actually be up for grabs.
The poll, commissioned by the campaign of Dan Osborn, a Nebraska labor leader running as an independent, and conducted by Impact Research with advice from Republican firm Red Wave Strategy Group, shows that Osborn is tied with two-term incumbent Republican Sen. Deb Fischer at 42-42. What’s interesting is that when respondents were asked how they would vote in the Senate race between an independent and a Republican, 57 percent of Republicans and 54 percent of Trump voters said they were open to voting for an independent candidate.
Statewide, the survey respondents expressed a preference for former President Donald Trump over Biden, with 59 percent favoring Trump and only 36 percent favoring Biden. In areas where the presidential race was more closely contested, there was even more enthusiasm for Osborn. In Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, which includes Omaha, Trump led Biden by a narrow margin of 49-47 in a head-to-head matchup, while Osborn outperformed Fischer with a lead of 44-40.
It is worth noting that three out of the four independents currently in the Senate caucus with the Democrats. The fourth independent, Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, aligns with Democrats for committee purposes. Osborn has declined to accept the endorsement of either major party, although many of his policy priorities align with positions traditionally adopted by Democrats. Democratic officials in Nebraska had considered supporting Osborn’s candidacy and did not field a Democratic candidate against him in the primaries. However, Osborn’s refusal to accept the party’s endorsement led to a statement from state officials accusing him of betrayal. While the party initially planned to field a write-in candidate against Osborn and Fischer for the general election, that has not yet materialized.
In terms of background and experience, Osborn, a 48-year-old military veteran, would be a first-time politician. He is best known as a labor leader, having served as the president of the Bakery, Confectionery, Tobacco Workers, and Grain Millers International Union Local 50G. Two years ago, Osborn played a prominent role in leading a strike against food giant Kellogg’s that lasted over two months and involved factories in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Tennessee. Last month, he received the endorsement of the United Auto Workers union.
Osborn’s platform includes raising pay for service members, addressing agricultural consolidation, and advocating for the legalization of medical marijuana. He also supports the passage of the Protecting the Right to Organize Act and opposes extreme measures to ban abortion. Additionally, he calls for rail safety reform, such as requiring two-person crews and increasing fines for violating rail safety laws. These reforms were proposed following the Norfolk Southern derailment in East Palestine, Ohio, last year.
In terms of fundraising, Osborn has been successful in garnering support. In the second quarter of 2024, between April 1 and July 30, he raised $1,035,249 from approximately 31,000 donors, with an average contribution of $33. On the other hand, Fischer’s campaign raised $678,985 over the same period.
While Nebraska has long been a Republican stronghold, the recent poll indicates that Fischer does not have as strong a foothold as expected. Her favorability rating was a net negative two, and nearly as many voters expressed a preference for “someone else” (40 percent) rather than reelecting Fischer (41 percent). Furthermore, 68 percent of respondents stated that they are open to supporting an independent candidate for Senate, while only 21 percent said they would exclusively support a Republican.
Interestingly, Osborn also leads among registered independents, with the support of 65 percent, compared to Fischer’s 16 percent.
Previous polls for the race have shown mixed results. A recent poll commissioned by the Fischer campaign gave her a significant lead, but a large percentage of respondents had no opinion of Osborn or did not know who he was. In contrast, only 14 percent of respondents were unfamiliar with Fischer. Another poll conducted in November had Osborn leading Fischer by a slim margin of 2 points, with respondents showing more favorability towards Osborn’s background. A poll from late April showed Osborn trailing Fischer by 4 points, with 30 percent of voters undecided.
With Biden’s exit from the presidential race disrupting Republicans’ nationwide strategy, the latest poll suggests that the Fischer campaign may have cause for concern as well. The Nebraska Senate seat, which was once assumed to be safely Republican, now appears to be up for grabs.
