A closely contested congressional race on Long Island is not only significant for the candidates involved but also carries broader implications for both Democrats and Republicans. The rematch election between Republican Anthony D’Esposito and Democrat Laura Gillen is seen as an opportunity for Democrats to regain their footing on the island after facing defeat in multiple election cycles. On the other hand, Republicans are hoping for a victory that would solidify the area as reliably conservative.
The Democrats’ recent struggles in the area can be attributed to backlash over liberal criminal justice reforms implemented by the state legislature. To counter this, Democrats are pinning their hopes on Gillen’s ability to unseat D’Esposito in the 4th district, despite him defeating her by a significant margin of over 10,000 votes in the previous election.
According to an internal campaign poll conducted by McLaughlin Associates in mid-August, D’Esposito currently holds a 6-percentage point lead over Gillen, with 48% of the district’s voters supporting him compared to Gillen’s 42%. The 4th district, which borders New York City, includes areas such as Hempstead, Valley Stream, Uniondale, and Freeport in Nassau County. The district’s voter registration is divided roughly equally between Democrats, Republicans, and independents, with Jewish residents accounting for 20% of the electorate.
Gillen is campaigning as an independent-minded Democrat who prioritizes safety and condemns the state law that abolished cash bail for many crimes. She also expresses support for tougher border security. D’Esposito, on the other hand, aligns himself with President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, criticizing Gillen for her association with them and blaming them for the border crisis.
In addition to the immigration issue, both candidates are also positioning themselves on the topic of abortion rights. Gillen, like many other Democrats in this year’s elections, pledges to protect abortion rights following the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. She accuses D’Esposito of shifting his stance on the issue, while he denies supporting a nationwide abortion ban and claims that Gillen is basing her entire campaign on this issue.
The outcome of this congressional race is of particular interest due to the potential influence of the presidential race on the district’s voters. While President Biden won the district by a margin of 55% to 45% in 2020, the internal campaign poll conducted in June showed him trailing behind Trump by 7-percentage points. However, since Biden dropped out of the race, Harris has closed that gap, making her a potential “wild card” with strong support from the sizable black population in the district.
As November approaches, both candidates will continue their efforts to sway voters in their favor. For Democrats, a victory in this closely contested race would signify a resurgence on Long Island, while Republicans would see it as further proof of the area’s shift towards conservatism. The race is not only a battle between two individuals but also a reflection of broader political trends and issues that will shape the future of the district.
