Republicans are sounding alarms that two races long viewed as essential to keeping their Senate majority — the open-seat contest in North Carolina and the Senate fight in Georgia — are growing more difficult to win, according to interviews and reporting by multiple outlets and party officials.
- Republican leaders and operatives privately say North Carolina and Georgia look less winnable than they once did.
- NRSC Chair Tim Scott’s closed-door briefing omitted Georgia and North Carolina from the committee’s top targets, according to Politico.
- Some GOP-aligned groups have reduced ad reservations in North Carolina; the NRSC has already spent coordinated funds in both states.
- Republicans face a strategic choice about reallocating finite resources as losing both seats would increase Democratic paths to a Senate majority.
- Uncertainty remains — campaigns, PACs or late events could still alter either race before Election Day.
What Republican operatives are saying
CNN reported that in more than a dozen conversations with campaign officials, sitting senators and operatives, many within the GOP acknowledged that North Carolina and Georgia now look less competitive than they once did and that leadership faces urgent choices about where to spend scarce resources in the final weeks before the election.
Republican strategist Thom Tillis told CNN it was time for the party to make “tough decisions about spending,” saying funds should go “where we get Republicans elected.” Karl Rove was quoted bluntly at the Texas Tribune Festival saying, “We’re not going to win either one,” a comment CNN reported as reflecting growing pessimism in some corners of the party.
Publicly, party leaders have pushed back against the idea that they are abandoning either contest. NRSC Chair Sen. Tim Scott denied his committee was deprioritizing Georgia and North Carolina after a closed-door briefing on the map; an NRSC spokesperson also said Scott spoke positively about both nominees and that they were “chipping away at their polling deficits,” CNN reported.
Which races are in question
In North Carolina, GOP nominee Michael Whatley is contesting the open seat formerly held by Sen. Thom Tillis. CNN’s reporting describes Whatley as behind in polling and facing questions about his messaging and strategy. Whatley has said he feels “very comfortable” he’ll have the money he needs, but Republican operatives in the state told CNN they worry his campaign has over-focused on crime and not landed on other messages that could sway voters.
In Georgia, Republican Rep. Mike Collins is trying to unseat Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff. Collins’ campaign has told allies it needs more help and circulated a memo arguing that about one in 10 voters remain persuadable — largely Trump 2024 supporters who are backing the GOP gubernatorial candidate — and that increased ad spending could move those voters, CNN reported.
Signs the party is reallocating resources
There are concrete indicators that Republican-aligned groups and the party’s campaign arm have begun tightening their spending priorities. CNN noted that Old North Action, a GOP super PAC, trimmed its ad reservations in North Carolina by roughly a third; Politico reported that Sen. Tim Scott told Senate Republicans the NRSC would focus on other states, listing Maine, Ohio, Michigan, Alaska, Texas and New Hampshire as priorities and omitting Georgia and North Carolina from the top targets he shared in a closed-door meeting.
Sen. John Cornyn told CNN he questioned continuing to pour money into contests that may no longer be winnable this late in the campaign, stressing that the committee must prioritize places where dollars will have the largest impact. Cornyn’s actions — headlining a fundraiser that excluded the North Carolina and Georgia nominees and targeted candidates in other states — underscored his view that funds might be more effective elsewhere.
How Democrats and forecasters see the map
CNN and other outlets have noted that political handicappers have adjusted several Senate ratings toward Democrats in recent weeks. The Cook Political Report made changes that affected Georgia and North Carolina, a development flagged by multiple outlets as evidence the map is shifting in Democrats’ favor. CNN also reported that the NRSC has already spent coordinated funds in the two states — for example, $7.9 million in North Carolina and $3.6 million in Georgia — but that leaders are wrestling with whether additional investments are worth the trade-offs.
Internal divisions and public signals
There is a visible split between party figures urging continued investment and those advising restraint. NRSC officials and Senate leaders have publicly reaffirmed support for the nominees; at the same time, prominent Republicans including Cornyn and some state operatives have questioned the wisdom of doubling down on contests where recent polling trends favor Democrats.
Rep. Nancy Mace publicly warned Republicans would “for SURE” lose the North Carolina seat, amplifying private anxieties reported by The Washington Post and CNN about Whatley’s standing. Other GOP operatives, speaking on background to CNN, argued that Whatley’s close alignment with former President Donald Trump has limited his ability to attract swing voters, a criticism the campaign rejects in public remarks.
Practical implications for the Senate majority
Republicans currently hold a narrow advantage in the Senate; losing both North Carolina and Georgia would widen Democrats’ potential paths to a majority. CNN’s reporting framed the two contests as among the most consequential for the party’s ability to defend its slim edge. That arithmetic helps explain why the NRSC and outside groups are treating resource allocation as a zero-sum calculation in the closing weeks.
What remains unresolved
- Whether the NRSC will shift significant coordinated spending back into North Carolina or Georgia after having signaled other priorities; party officials have denied deprioritization even as some closed-door briefings omitted the states.
- Whether national and state Republican groups will reallocate ad buys and get-out-the-vote resources from other contests to these two races, or instead concentrate on defending vulnerable Republican-held seats and chase flips in other states.
- How late-breaking campaign events, candidate messaging shifts, or outside spending by super PACs might change the dynamics in either state before Election Day.
Timeline of recent developments
- September 23: Politico reported that NRSC Chair Tim Scott told senators in a closed-door briefing the committee would prioritize other states and left Georgia and North Carolina off his top list of targets.
- September 23: The Washington Post covered public comments from Rep. Nancy Mace expressing certainty that Republicans would lose the North Carolina seat.
- Late September: CNN published interviews with more than a dozen GOP operatives and officials outlining growing concerns about Whatley in North Carolina and Collins in Georgia, and reported that at least one Republican super PAC cut ad reservations in North Carolina.
Bottom line
Republican officials and operatives are publicly and privately debating whether North Carolina and Georgia remain investable paths to preserving their Senate majority. Party leaders say they remain committed to the nominees, but fundraising shifts and closed-door signals show the committee is prioritizing other states — a development that could reshape the Senate map in the final weeks of the campaign unless campaigns or outside groups reverse course.
“You spend the money where we get Republicans elected,” Thom Tillis told CNN, urging swift and strategic deployment of resources.
