Former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has been granted parole after spending six months in a Bangkok hospital for corruption-related offenses. Thaksin, who was seen leaving the hospital accompanied by his two daughters, arrived at his residence in western Bangkok to a heartfelt welcome from supporters. The release of Thaksin, a polarizing figure in Thai politics, is seen as a step towards reconciliation with the conservative elite who viewed his populist politics as a threat to the monarchy.
Despite his release, Thaksin is still believed to wield significant influence within the ruling Pheu Thai party, led by his daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra. However, the extent of his political power remains uncertain. Analysts suggest that Thaksin will continue to operate behind the scenes, shaping the party’s strategies and policies.
Thaksin’s original eight-year sentence was commuted to one year by King Maha Vajiralongkorn shortly after his voluntary return from self-imposed exile. His parole was approved due to his serious health condition and age. Although he is required to report to parole officers monthly and faces travel restrictions, Thaksin is not required to wear an ankle monitor.
Thaksin’s legal battles are not yet over, as an investigation into allegations of defaming the monarchy has been reopened. If indicted, he could face detention once again. Despite these uncertainties, Thaksin’s return to Thailand coincided with the appointment of Srettha Thavisin of the Pheu Thai party as prime minister, with the support of military-linked parties.
Thaksin’s supporters and opponents have been engaged in a long-standing struggle since his ouster in 2006. Violent clashes, electoral contests, legal battles, and another coup in 2014 have characterized the political landscape. Once considered a symbol of a different Thailand, Thaksin used his wealth to build a populist political party and enjoyed significant electoral success until recently. However, the unexpected victory of the progressive Move Forward party in the last election signaled a desire for structural change in Thai politics.
The Move Forward party’s reformist policies alarmed the conservative establishment, leading to a reconciliation with Thaksin’s political machine to prevent the progressive party from coming to power. The Pheu Thai party, which finished second in the election, formed a coalition government with conservative parties acceptable to the Senate. However, the Pheu Thai party has shifted its stance and abandoned many of its reform agendas, disappointing voters who had hoped for real change.
Despite losing some support and compromising its image through political maneuvering, the Pheu Thai party remains stable as long as it aligns with old power structures and major capitalists. As a result, the likelihood of significant change under this government has diminished. Thailand’s political landscape continues to be shaped by the influence and actions of Thaksin Shinawatra and his allies, leaving many observers wondering about the future direction of the country.
