As Thanksgiving approached in 2024, the American turkey industry found itself in a precarious situation, reflecting a broader narrative of economic struggle within the agricultural sector. The annual holiday, traditionally synonymous with turkey feasts, was overshadowed by a significant decline in both demand and prices for turkey products. This year, turkey farmers and processors had little to celebrate.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) reported a sobering forecast: the national turkey flock had dwindled to levels not seen since the 1980s. Estimates suggested that only about 205 million turkeys would be raised in 2024, marking a 6% decrease from the previous year. This decline has been part of a troubling trend; since 2017, turkey production has consistently decreased from over 244 million birds. Mark Jordan, an animal agriculture consultant, pointed out that the industry’s challenges are compounded by low consumer demand. Despite a diminished supply, turkey prices have not rebounded as expected; in fact, the average price for frozen whole turkeys plummeted to approximately 94 cents a pound—its lowest since 2019.
This disconnect between supply and pricing can be attributed to three primary factors. First, the trend toward processing larger, heavier birds has skewed slaughter numbers. Brian Earnest, a lead economist at CoBank, noted that processors favor larger birds for their meat yield, particularly for high-value turkey breast products. Second, a prolonged decline in demand has led to a stark reduction in turkey consumption per capita, with Americans projected to eat just 13.8 pounds of turkey in 2024—the lowest level since 1986. This shift in consumer behavior is notable; many families are opting for alternative proteins like ham and beef during the holiday season, indicating a significant transformation in traditional eating patterns.
Moreover, retailers, who typically promote whole turkeys at discounted prices during Thanksgiving, have reduced their offerings. According to Jordan, grocery stores are now purchasing only as many turkeys as they anticipate selling, a stark contrast to previous years when they would stock up aggressively. Given that Thanksgiving accounts for about 22% of the annual turkey demand, this cautious approach is detrimental to an already struggling industry.
Compounding these challenges are ongoing animal health issues, including outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) and avian metapneumovirus. The turkey industry has faced sporadic HPAI outbreaks since 2014, which led to the culling of millions of birds to prevent disease spread. In 2024 alone, around 1.7 million turkeys were lost to HPAI, illustrating the severe impact of health crises on production capabilities. Additionally, the avian metapneumovirus poses a threat to the fertility of breeder birds, further constraining the turkey supply.
Despite these obstacles, the integrated model of the U.S. turkey industry—a system in which major companies own the birds and provide feed, while farmers grow them—has allowed many processors to remain operational. However, the burden of economic strain falls heavily on the growers. With rising input costs and declining income, many farmers have begun to exhaust their working capital reserves, relying increasingly on credit to sustain their operations.
As Bernt Nelson from the American Farm Bureau Federation succinctly put it, “It’s a hard year to be a turkey farmer.” This sentiment encapsulates the reality facing producers in a market where input costs have risen for two consecutive years while revenues have declined. Farmers are caught in a precarious cycle, where diminishing returns force them to make difficult financial decisions that could jeopardize their long-term viability.
Looking ahead, the outlook for American turkey consumption remains bleak, with projections indicating a further decrease in 2025. The presence of substantial frozen turkey stocks in cold storage adds another layer of complexity, potentially saturating the market if demand does not recover.
In conclusion, the challenges faced by the turkey industry are emblematic of larger trends affecting American agriculture, highlighting the need for adaptive strategies amid shifting consumer preferences, health crises, and economic constraints. As the industry grapples with these multifaceted challenges, the resilience of turkey farmers will be tested in the coming years, requiring innovation and perhaps a reevaluation of how turkey fits into the American culinary landscape. The future of turkey on our tables may depend not only on the birds themselves but on the broader economic and social currents that shape our dining choices.
