Cattle Numbers Plummet to Record Low in Decades: A Look into the Decline
The United States is facing a severe crisis in its beef cattle industry as cattle numbers reach a record low not seen since the early 1950s. This decline in supply has led to skyrocketing beef prices and raised concerns about the long-term health of the nation’s farming community. Multiple factors, including severe droughts and government policies favoring large food processors, have contributed to this dire situation.
According to Justin Tupper, the president of the United States Cattlemen’s Association, a series of severe droughts has devastated the availability of pastures for grazing. Without proper grazing, cows struggle to flourish, leading to a significant drop in cattle numbers. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported that the nationwide beef cattle inventory decreased to 28.2 million as of Jan. 1, representing a 2 percent decline from the previous year and marking the lowest level since the 1970s.
John Boyd, Jr., president of the National Black Farmers Association, has called this loss of cattle a “national crisis.” He criticized the Biden administration for not paying attention to this issue and warned that Americans would bear the brunt of rising beef prices at their local grocery stores.
Indeed, beef prices have reached record highs. The latest Consumer Price Index report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics reveals that beef and veal prices have surged by 7.7 percent compared to January 2023. Ground beef is up 5.5 percent, beef roasts are up 6.7 percent, and beef steaks are up a staggering 10.7 percent.
The shortage of cattle is further exacerbated by larger companies purchasing acres of cattle farms for alternative purposes, resulting in a diminishing supply of available beef. As Mr. Tupper highlighted, “We are losing cow herds every day, and the one thing they aren’t making any more of is land.”
Interestingly, the declining cattle numbers have also ignited a debate about the future of meat consumption. Bill Gates, an investor in Upside Foods, one of the two synthetic meat producers approved by the USDA, has advocated for a complete shift to synthetic beef. He argues that meat alternatives are necessary to combat climate change caused by greenhouse gases. However, beef cattle production only contributes 2 percent of total greenhouse gas emissions in the United States, while energy production and transportation account for a combined 54 percent, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
Government policies have also played a role in the dwindling supply. The USDA’s proposal to mandate electronic ear tags for cattle and bison crossing state lines has faced criticism from ranchers. They argue that the requirement places unnecessary costs on American ranchers and further raises the price of beef. Mr. Tupper expressed his concerns, stating, “We need support, not more obstacles.”
Despite these setbacks, there is still room for optimism. Mr. Tupper believes that the cow herd will gradually rebuild over the next two to three years due to steady demand for beef, despite its record-high prices. He also noted that the popularity of the carnivore diet has grown significantly as people recognize the benefits of eating meat and cutting out processed foods.
In conclusion, the United States is currently facing a severe crisis in its beef cattle industry. Droughts and government policies favoring large food processors have caused cattle numbers to plummet to record lows not seen in decades. This decline in supply has resulted in soaring beef prices and raised concerns about the long-term health of the farming community. While challenges remain, there is optimism for the future as steady demand for beef and a growing interest in the carnivore diet may contribute to the gradual rebuilding of the cow herd.
