As Australia navigates the complexities of its demographic landscape, recent data reveals a slowing population growth that, while welcome news for potential homeowners, signals a deeper conversation about migration trends and economic stability. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the nation’s population has reached 27.3 million, marking an increase of 484,000 over the past year. This growth, however, comes amid a notable deceleration in the rate of international migration, which has been a primary driver of population increase.
In the year leading up to September 30, 2024, Australia’s population grew by 1.8 percent, largely propelled by international migration. The ABS reported approximately 617,900 arrivals from overseas contrasted with 238,100 departures, resulting in a net increase of 379,800 people due to migration. While these figures indicate a substantial influx, they also highlight a downward trend compared to previous quarters, as migration numbers have begun to ease. Natural population growth, calculated as births minus deaths, added only 104,200 people, reflecting a 3 percent decrease from the previous year. The total births recorded during this period were 291,200, while deaths stood at 187,000.
Among the states, Western Australia emerged as the frontrunner in population growth, expanding by 2.5 percent. Victoria and Queensland followed closely, with growth rates of 2.1 percent and 2.0 percent, respectively. In stark contrast, Tasmania experienced minimal growth at just 0.3 percent, underscoring varying demographic trends across the country.
The topic of migration, however, is not without its political battles. Critics have raised alarms over the government’s handling of migration numbers, asserting that current policies fail to manage the influx effectively. Morgan Begg, director of research at the Institute of Public Affairs, pointed out that the federal government’s migration intake target is projected to be exceeded by 38 percent this financial year. He argues that promises to rein in immigration, which are driving Australia’s housing and cost-of-living crises, have proven ineffective. Shadow Immigration Minister Dan Tehan has also voiced concerns, asserting that the Labor government is consistently overshooting migration forecasts. He has called for a reduction in permanent migration, proposing a decrease from 185,000 to 140,000, and scaling back the humanitarian intake from 20,000 to 13,750.
This political discourse raises a pivotal question: what should “normal” migration to Australia look like? Professor Alan Gamlen from the Australian National University’s Migration Hub emphasizes the complexity of this issue. “Should we aim to return to pre-pandemic levels or set a new normal? Opinions differ widely,” he states. The debate is layered; some argue that migration levels prior to the pandemic placed excessive strain on housing and infrastructure, while others caution that current levels may be too low, risking labor shortages and exacerbating inflation. The real challenge, Gamlen notes, is not merely about when migration will revert to “normal,” but rather how to redefine what “normal” should entail in a post-pandemic landscape.
As Australia’s population dynamics evolve, the interplay between migration policies, economic stability, and public sentiment will be critical. The ongoing dialogue around these issues reflects a broader societal concern about the balance between welcoming newcomers and maintaining a sustainable quality of life for existing residents. Ultimately, the path forward will require careful consideration of both economic needs and the lived experiences of Australians across the nation.
