Australian Research Predicts Solar Panel Waste to Reach 1 Million Tonnes by 2030
A new study conducted by the Australian Centre for Advanced Photovoltaics, led by experts from the University of New South Wales (NSW), has revealed that the volume of solar panel waste in Australia is rapidly increasing. The study predicts that within one year, the country will have 280,000 tonnes of solar panel waste, and within a decade, this number will skyrocket to one million tonnes. These findings contradict earlier forecasts, which suggested that significant volumes of PV waste would not appear until after 2030.
The research highlights that dealing with the challenge of managing such high levels of solar PV waste will become an issue within the next two or three years. By 2025, the cumulative volume of end-of-life solar panels is expected to reach 280,000 tonnes, and by 2030, it will soar to 680,000 tonnes. The study also notes that a “significant milestone” of one million tonnes will be reached between 2034 and 2035.
Interestingly, the researchers discovered that small-scale distributed PV systems will make up the majority (80 percent) of decommissioned solar panels by 2030 due to the earlier revolution of Australia’s residential PV market.
On an annual scale, the waste volume in Australia is projected to exceed 50,000 tonnes in one year and reach 100,000 tonnes between 2030 and 2035, which is equivalent to 1.2 GW per year. This projection is four times higher than previous predictions because it takes into account the premature decommissioning of residential solar panel systems.
The study predicts that the concentration of solar panel waste will mainly be in major Australian states such as Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide. However, from 2030 onwards, the waste volume is expected to accelerate in regional and remote areas as large-scale PV systems reach their mid- or end-of-life cycle.
One of the main challenges in recycling solar panel waste lies in the lack of financial incentive to do so. While solar panels are made from potentially reusable materials like glass, aluminium, and copper, the presence of heavy metals in them can make the waste hazardous and harmful to the environment if left in landfills to degrade. It costs approximately $20 to recycle a typical 20-kilogram solar panel, while sending it to a landfill costs only about $2. This lack of financial incentive is due to the intricate technology involved in recycling, the insufficient material returns to offset costs, and the difficulties faced by recyclers operating on a small scale.
Finding markets for recycled solar panel materials is another significant challenge since up to 70 percent of solar panels are made of low-value glass. The highly mixed nature of the components makes it challenging to find suitable markets for their use. Additionally, the logistical difficulties of transporting separated materials to waste management infrastructures pose a significant barrier, especially considering the widespread distribution of panels across the country, including utility-scale solar farms in regional and remote areas.
To address these challenges, the research paper proposes a 12-year industry roadmap. This roadmap includes the establishment of a “national product stewardship scheme” that defines management structures, optimizing waste logistics through the creation of a streamlined network for efficient transportation, investing in full-recycling technologies, and establishing large-scale PV waste treatment facilities in major Australian cities.
In conclusion, the rapid increase in solar panel waste poses a significant challenge for Australia. The predictions of reaching one million tonnes by 2030 have surprised experts and contradict earlier forecasts. The lack of financial incentive and difficulties in finding markets for recycled materials, along with logistical challenges, exacerbate the problem. However, the proposed industry roadmap offers potential solutions to address these challenges and manage the growing volume of solar panel waste effectively. It is crucial for Australia to take action now to ensure a sustainable and environmentally friendly approach to solar panel disposal and recycling.
