How Trump’s Choice of Running Mate for 2024 Will Shape a Distinct Election Compared to Biden’s 2020 Campaign
Donald Trump is already leading in the polls against Joe Biden, according to recent surveys conducted by The New York Times, Wall Street Journal, CBS News, and Fox News. However, the race is still close, with Trump holding a lead of only two to five points. With eight months left until Election Day, there is ample time for new events to potentially tip the outcome in either direction.
Unfortunately for Biden, there is one development that voters can count on that will certainly favor Trump: his announcement of a running mate. The selection of a running mate can often make a significant difference in a campaign, particularly when it comes to balancing the experience and qualifications of the presidential nominee.
In recent decades, both parties have chosen vice presidential candidates to balance the perceived inexperience of their presidential nominees. For example, in 2000, George W. Bush, who was seen as a foreign-policy lightweight compared to Al Gore, chose former Defense Secretary Dick Cheney as his running mate. Similarly, Barack Obama faced doubts about his readiness to handle international affairs in 2008 and selected long-serving Senator Joe Biden, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, as his partner.
In 2016, Donald Trump himself had no government experience and was a newcomer to the Republican Party. He made a safe choice by selecting Indiana Gov. Mike Pence as his running mate, who reassured old-guard Republicans who may have still had reservations about Trump after the primaries.
However, the vice presidential choices made by losing slates from 2000 to 2016 often failed to offer much additional appeal to voters. Sometimes, the VP slot was used to offer more of what voters were already getting from the top of the ticket, or to win a state that might have otherwise gone to the opposing party.
For example, in 2012, Mitt Romney’s choice of House Speaker Paul Ryan did not bring much to the ticket in terms of electoral advantage. Similarly, Hillary Clinton’s selection of Senator Tim Kaine in 2016 did not add significant value to her campaign, as Virginia was already a blue state and Kaine’s supposed moderation did not resonate with voters.
Biden’s choice of Kamala Harris in 2020 bore some resemblance to John McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin in 2008. Both were chosen for diversity, with Palin being a conservative outsider paired with the experienced and maverick-y McCain. Harris, on the other hand, brought diversity in terms of race and sex, but little else. Her background as California’s attorney general did not endear her to progressives, and her stage presence did not appeal to a wide range of voters. However, she satisfied the need for diversity within the Democratic Party.
In contrast, Trump does not have to worry about another nomination if he wins this year. As a former president, his needs in a running mate are different. He must seriously consider a successor, especially if he continues to face legal troubles after a potential second term. A running mate with the power to pardon would be Trump’s last defense against progressive legal challenges.
Trump is unlikely to try to “balance” his ticket by picking someone from a rival Republican faction. Loyalty is his top requirement, followed by considerations of diversity and geography. Recent selections have shown that these considerations have been less successful in winning elections.
Potential candidates on Trump’s short list include South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, New York Rep. Elise Stefanik, and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott. While Noem, Stefanik, and Scott do not come from states that would automatically shift the electoral map, their selection could still have an impact. Trump may also consider a white male candidate like Senator J.D. Vance, who could appeal to blue-collar voters in states like Pennsylvania and help rebuild the map that won him the White House in 2016.
Ultimately, the influence of a vice presidential pick is usually small. However, Trump has several ways to turn the right choice into a winning hand. Biden, on the other hand, has no choice but to rely on his 2020 ticket, which is now four years worse for wear. As they head into their rematch, Trump has the advantage of a new element on his side.
In conclusion, the choice of running mate for both Donald Trump and Joe Biden will play a significant role in shaping the 2024 election. Trump’s selection will be focused on loyalty and potential legal protection, while Biden’s choice will have to compensate for the wear and tear of their previous campaign. Both candidates will need to carefully consider factors such as diversity, geography, and appeal to key voter groups in order to give their campaign the best chance of success.
