The Consequences of Neglecting the Question ‘Then What?’: Business and Government Failures Explored

In a thought-provoking article by The Epoch Times, the consequences of neglecting the question “then what?” are explored in relation to both business and government failures. The author highlights the lack of critical thinking skills and second-order thinking, which is the ability to consider the potential adverse consequences of proposed actions. By examining various examples, the article emphasizes the importance of incorporating second-order thinking into decision-making processes to avoid unintended and often disastrous outcomes.

One notable example discussed is the ban on disposable plastic bags implemented in California and other states over a decade ago due to environmental concerns. While the intention was to reduce plastic waste, businesses responded by introducing supposedly “reusable” plastic bags that were actually heavier and contained more plastic. Consequently, these bags were rarely reused, leading to an increase in plastic consumption instead of a decrease.

Another instance highlighted is the response to the COVID-19 pandemic, where governments forced businesses and factories to shut down, resulting in constricted supply chains. However, at the same time, the Federal Reserve printed significant amounts of money to ensure financial stability and support government programs. This action led to a surge in inflation, the worst seen in 40 years, as the increased liquidity flooded the economy.

The article also delves into business practices that prioritize short-term gains over long-term growth. Companies often boost their stock prices and earnings per share by buying back their own outstanding stock instead of investing in innovation or acquisitions that could drive future revenues and returns of capital. This strategy fails to consider the long-term implications and ultimately hampers overall business growth.

Furthermore, the article addresses the consequences of outsourcing U.S. manufacturing to lower-wage economies with weak rule of law and property rights. This practice unintentionally enables foreign companies to become competitors in the U.S. market with knock-offs of outsourced products. By neglecting to consider the potential negative outcomes, businesses have inadvertently contributed to their own competition.

The failure to ask “then what?” is also evident in the realm of foreign policy. The example of the Biden administration’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 is discussed. Initially offering to evacuate President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the administration later changed strategy and offered support. However, without a comprehensive plan or strategy, the conflict has resulted in substantial casualties and financial costs with no end in sight.

The article concludes by emphasizing the importance of incorporating second-order thinking through the use of murder boards or red teams. These critical evaluation panels, typically comprised of individuals with expertise and no vested interest in a proposal, can provide valuable insights and identify potential flaws or unintended consequences. The author suggests that every institution, whether business, government, or nonprofit, should adopt this practice to enhance decision-making and avoid costly mistakes.

Overall, the article highlights the need for a shift in mindset towards more comprehensive and forward-thinking approaches. By considering the question “then what?” and incorporating second-order thinking, businesses and governments can minimize failures and achieve more successful outcomes. It serves as a reminder that critical thinking and thorough analysis are essential components of effective leadership and decision-making.