Potential Tropical Development in the Atlantic: Keeping a Close Watch
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is closely monitoring several disturbances for potential tropical development. However, the one garnering the most attention is the system swirling a few hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles in the Atlantic. According to the NHC, this disturbance, located east of the Caribbean, continues to exhibit signs of organization through its shower and thunderstorm activity.
Although forecasters are keeping a close eye on this system, it still needs to become better organized before any confident forecasts can be made. FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross explains that if the system manages to organize, it could find itself over extremely warm water and favorable atmospheric conditions for strengthening in the western Caribbean Sea late next week. However, he emphasizes that specific long-range forecasts should not be relied upon at this stage.
The NHC has been fluctuating the odds of tropical development for this system between 40-50% over the next week. Norcross believes that these odds will likely remain until the system exhibits stronger signs of organization. Despite this uncertainty, it is important to be aware of the potential storm threat near Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula around next weekend, as well as the possibility of impacts in the Southeast the following week.
While a disturbance off the coast of Africa has fizzled and is no longer being monitored, the NHC warns that a new threat could emerge in the area soon. A tropical wave moving over western Africa is forecasted to move offshore on Monday. Environmental conditions could support slow development as it moves west or west-northwest over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean in the upcoming week.
In the Gulf Coast region, a trough of low pressure is currently producing a large area of thunderstorms along and just offshore the Texas and Louisiana coasts. Although the chance of tropical development remains low, the NHC cautions that the flooding threat persists. With little steering winds, the system is expected to meander near the coast throughout much of the next week. However, if it remains offshore over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, there is a possibility of slow tropical development.
For now, the NHC is only assigning low odds of development into a tropical depression within the next week. Regardless of tropical development, heavy rains associated with this system could result in flash flooding along portions of the Louisiana and upper Texas coasts over the next few days. It is crucial for residents in these areas to stay informed and prepared for potential impacts.
