Tensions between the United States and China are expected to persist regardless of the outcome of the November election. Both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have demonstrated a strong stance against China when it comes to trade and investment, but they differ in their approaches. Trump is known for his aggressive tactics, using tariffs and policy demands to put pressure on Beijing. If re-elected, he intends to continue along the same lines. On the other hand, Harris is likely to follow President Joe Biden’s policies, given her limited experience in foreign affairs and economics.
To understand the current state of US-China relations, it is important to consider recent history. When Trump took office in 2017, he expressed hostility towards globalization, particularly China. He accused China of stealing American jobs through unfair trade practices and demanded policy changes. As a result, he imposed tariffs on Chinese imports, starting with a 10 percent tariff on $200 billion worth of goods, which was later increased to 25 percent. Additional tariffs were imposed on more Chinese goods, totaling $112 billion.
Trump also tightened controls on technology sales to China and restricted Chinese firms, such as Huawei, from operating in the United States. Despite reaching an agreement with Beijing in January 2020 to remove tariffs, no significant changes occurred. When Biden took office, he criticized Trump’s approach but kept the tariffs in place. His trade representative, Katherine Tai, described the tariffs as a tool to pressure Beijing into changing its discriminatory policies. The Biden administration further restricted sales of advanced computer chips and chip-making equipment to China. They also prohibited American investment in Chinese technology and subsidized domestic US manufacturing of semiconductors.
Looking ahead, if Trump were to secure another term, he would likely increase pressure on Beijing. His proposed 60 percent tariff on all goods manufactured in China and revocation of China’s permanent normal trade status demonstrate his determination. Trump also favors bilateral deals over alliances and multilateralism.
Harris, on the other hand, has not provided clear details about her approach, but it is expected to align with the Biden administration’s trade hostility towards China. She prefers the term “de-risking” instead of “de-coupling,” a formulation also favored by the Europeans. While the practical differences between the two approaches are unclear, the vaguer language allows for flexibility. Harris has shown support for multilateralism, pushing for joint infrastructure projects and a semiconductor partnership among Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and the United States.
Despite differences in tactics, rhetoric, and style, both candidates share a fundamental suspicion of Beijing and opposition to China’s trade practices and ambitions. With bipartisan hostility towards China trade and investment in Congress, it seems that the outcome of the November election may have limited impact on US-China relations in this area.
In conclusion, regardless of who wins the election, the United States is likely to maintain a tough stance towards China. Trump and Harris may differ in their tactics, but their underlying skepticism towards Beijing remains the same. The ongoing tensions between the two countries, coupled with bipartisan hostility in Congress, suggest that US-China relations will continue to be strained in the foreseeable future.
