Assassination attempts targeting populist leaders have historically had a surprising effect on their public appeal. This phenomenon was observed in the case of former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, who saw a surge in support for his party after being shot in the leg at a political rally. The public viewed him as a courageous figure fighting against a corrupt establishment.
Similarly, Brazilian strongman Jair Bolsonaro experienced a stabbing incident during an event in 2018. However, this incident only bolstered his popularity among voters who saw him as a survivor of an attempted murder by their ideological enemies. Bolsonaro went on to win the elections, riding the wave of sympathy and support.
Another notable example is President Ronald Reagan, who gained immense public sympathy and backing after surviving an assassination attempt. This support enabled him to implement a series of controversial economic policies that shaped the country for years to come.
These instances highlight the tendency for assassination attempts to boost the popularity of populist leaders. The public’s perception of these leaders as resilient figures standing up against powerful adversaries plays a significant role in this phenomenon.
Recent years have witnessed an apparent increase in political assassinations, both in the United States and abroad. Scholars have raised concerns about this trend, attributing it to “accelerationists” who aim to create social conflict by destabilizing political institutions. The killing of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in 2022 further fueled these concerns.
In light of these events, the recent incident at Donald Trump’s campaign rally in Pennsylvania raises questions about its potential impact on his popularity and the upcoming 2024 election. While details about Trump’s condition and the exact nature of the incident are still emerging, an image of him with blood on his ear defiantly raising his fist circulated widely on social media. Supporters praised his resilience and defiance.
It remains to be seen how this incident will shape Trump’s campaign and public perception. However, based on historical precedent, it is likely that his popularity will benefit from the sympathy and support generated by the apparent assassination attempt. The world will be watching closely to understand the implications of this moment for Trump’s future and the 2024 election.
