French Voters Face Decisive Choice in Runoff of Snap Parliamentary Elections

French voters are facing a crucial decision in the runoff of snap parliamentary elections on July 7. The outcome of these elections could potentially result in France’s first far-right government since the Nazi occupation during World War II, or it could lead to no majority at all. Projections by polling agencies indicate that the far-right National Rally party has a good chance of winning a majority in the lower house of parliament for the first time. However, the complexity of the voting system makes the final result uncertain.

The French electoral system is district-based rather than proportionate to nationwide support for a party. In the first round of voting, over 60 candidates who won at least 50% of the votes were elected outright. The top two contenders, along with anyone else who garnered support from more than 12.5% of registered voters, qualified for the second round. In many districts, three candidates made it to the second round. However, some tactics have already been announced to block far-right candidates. The left-wing coalition has stated that it will withdraw its candidates in districts where they came in third position to support other politicians opposed to the far right. Macron’s centrist alliance has also indicated that some of its candidates will step down before the runoff to block the National Rally.

Despite polls suggesting that the National Rally party has a good chance of winning an absolute majority, the outcome of the second round remains uncertain. The National Assembly, the lower house of parliament, holds more power than the Senate, which is dominated by conservatives. If the National Rally or another political force gains a majority, Macron will be compelled to appoint a prime minister from that new majority. This situation, known as “cohabitation” in France, would result in the government implementing policies that diverge from the president’s plan. France has experienced three cohabitations in its modern Republic, with the last one occurring from 1997 to 2002 under conservative President Jacques Chirac and Socialist Prime Minister Lionel Jospin.

During cohabitation, the president’s powers are somewhat diminished domestically, but they still hold authority over foreign policy, European affairs, and defense. The president is in charge of negotiating and ratifying international treaties, as well as being the commander-in-chief of the armed forces and holding the nuclear codes. However, the prime minister leads the government, introduces bills, and is accountable to parliament. In previous cohabitations, defense and foreign policies were considered the informal “reserved field” of the president, who could find compromises with the prime minister to present a unified voice abroad. However, if a far-right or leftist coalition takes power, their views on defense and foreign policies would differ significantly from Macron’s approach, potentially leading to tensions during cohabitation.

If no majority emerges from the parliamentary elections, the president can name a prime minister from the parliamentary group with the most seats in the National Assembly. However, the National Rally has already stated that it would reject this option, as it would make it easier for other political parties to overthrow a far-right government through a no-confidence vote. Another option would be for the president to build a broad coalition from the left to the right, but this seems unlikely given the political divergences. Alternatively, the president could appoint a government of experts unaffiliated with political parties, but this government would still need to be accepted by a majority in the National Assembly. Such a government would likely focus more on day-to-day affairs rather than implementing major reforms.

If political talks take too long, there is a possibility of a “transition period” during which Macron’s centrist government would continue to handle current affairs until further decisions are made. Despite these complex circumstances, experts believe that the Constitution of the 5th Republic is flexible enough to navigate such situations. However, there is still uncertainty regarding how the population will accept the outcome of these elections and the subsequent political landscape.